Political Crystal Ball

As I write, we’re just hours away from the polls opening for the Democrat and Republican primaries to nominate candidates for the open U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts. In 24 hours, every media outlet will tell you what happened. Tonight, I’m telling you what will happen.

First, as a special election, these races are all about turnout. These are the kinds of elections that turn on the strength of the candidates’ field operations. Money means less than in most elections, particularly when the money is spent on saturation advertizing (that means you, Steve Pagliuca). The air cover of ads is important in normally scheduled races when casual voters are accustomed to turning out, but in special elections paid ads are secondary to a professional Get-Out-the-Vote effort.

This means a significant edge for Martha Coakley, who has the support of organized labor in this race. She’ll have the needed machinery with built-in targeted voter lists and her vote will get out.

Mike Capuano will also have a base that he can turn out from his Congressional district. The machines from the communities he already represents will turn out a heavy vote, but unfortunately for him, his base is one-tenth of the statewide electorate while Coakley’s will have broader reach.

Steve Pagliuca has succeeded in making himself a household name to many with his saturation advertising, but unless he spent even more money on voter ID efforts and a voter turnout effort for tomorrow, he’ll finish well behind the two professional politicians in the race.

Lastly, Alan Khazei seems like a likable first-time candidate who is learning on the job. An endorsement from The Boston Globe sounds nice and is an achievement, but I’m betting The Globe’s Editorial Board won’t be driving anyone other than themselves to the polls tomorrow.

On the Republican side, the party is solidly behind State Senator Scott Brown. If he doesn’t trounce Jack E. Robinson, it speaks volumes about Brown’s campaign and he’s in even bigger trouble in January than I already thought. Turnout in the Republican primary will be light, making the exact margin of victory unpredictable, but Brown should win big.

On the Democrat side, here’s the finish: Coakley 44%, Capuano 35%, Pagliuca 12%, Khazei 9%.