Welcome to visitors from Facebook. Please bookmark the site and come back again!
A poll conducted yesterday of voters likely to vote in Massachusetts’ special election for US Senate (to be held on January 19) puts the race closer than many would have expected. With two weeks remaining in the campaign, the poll has Republican State Senator Scott Brown trailing Democrat Attorney General Martha Coakley by only nine points, 50-41.
Web stories on the poll have been run today by both the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald.
Nine points may sound like a big lead and this may not seem to be a big story to some, but in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, having a Republican that close to the Democrat two weeks out is newsworthy, particularly in a special election.
This election will hinge on turnout. According the Globe story, the pollster stated that among those individuals “absolutely certain” to vote, the numbers were even tighter, and suggested a lower turnout favored Brown. I’m not so sure about that. It really will come down to who votes rather than how many people vote. If Brown has spent time these past couple of months building a voter turnout machine that successfully gets his vote out, he could have a shot at this.
The good news for Coakley is, of course, being ahead, but also being at 50%. Conventional wisdom states that once a candidate breaks the 50% barrier, they are hard to beat as that entails “peeling away” some of their support. Again, however, that is for a normally scheduled regular election. Coakley still has to turn out her own vote for these numbers to materialize.
The bottom line? We’ve got a real race here for these next two weeks. It should be fun to watch!
Web stories on the poll have been run today by both the Boston Globe and the Boston Herald.
Nine points may sound like a big lead and this may not seem to be a big story to some, but in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, having a Republican that close to the Democrat two weeks out is newsworthy, particularly in a special election.
This election will hinge on turnout. According the Globe story, the pollster stated that among those individuals “absolutely certain” to vote, the numbers were even tighter, and suggested a lower turnout favored Brown. I’m not so sure about that. It really will come down to who votes rather than how many people vote. If Brown has spent time these past couple of months building a voter turnout machine that successfully gets his vote out, he could have a shot at this.
The good news for Coakley is, of course, being ahead, but also being at 50%. Conventional wisdom states that once a candidate breaks the 50% barrier, they are hard to beat as that entails “peeling away” some of their support. Again, however, that is for a normally scheduled regular election. Coakley still has to turn out her own vote for these numbers to materialize.
The bottom line? We’ve got a real race here for these next two weeks. It should be fun to watch!
No comments:
Post a Comment