So How Did I Do? (Part II)

On this morning after the election, there is plenty of analysis going on, and while some ardent but tangential supporters of the political Left are holding on to the idea that Martha Coakley’s loss was all about her, the political professionals and professional analysts seem to understand that something bigger may be afoot. They need not read further than a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll for evidence that Scott Brown’s win yesterday is a symptom, not a cause, of concerns this morning for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. The President would do well to spend some time on this, his first anniversary in office, reflecting on how he wishes to govern for the next three years.

Here at A Third Moment, it’s time to look back at yesterday’s post and ask the ever-important question, how close were my predictions to the results?

Here are the predictions I published yesterday morning, soon after the polls opened in Massachusetts (see previous post):

Voter Turnout: “Right around the 50% mark.”

Brown: 51%
Coakley: 46%
Kennedy: 3%


The actual results are as follows:

Voter Turnout: 54%

Brown: 51.94%
Coakley: 47.07%
Kennedy: 0.99%


Pretty darn close – even better than my primary predictions, I say with all due humility! While my turnout estimate was admittedly rough, I heard a report yesterday that the Massachusetts Secretary of State was predicting a far higher turnout number, so I think my estimate had his (and many others that ranged as high as 70%) beat.

As far as the candidates, I had the 5% margin of victory exactly right and was just a touch off on the actual percentages. My mistake was over-estimating Joe Kennedy’s vote. Frankly, I should have known better, but thought that there would be a higher percentage of voters who logged “protest votes” by selecting neither of the major party candidates. Again, I should have known better in a special election!